What is housing shortage, why does it occur, how to detect it, and finally, in which countries have already faced this issue? Even without additional explanations and discussions on the topic, you can provide examples of countries that are familiar with this problem. China has shifted from one extreme to another, sharply changing the focus from overpopulation to depopulation. Japan is still struggling with the issue that apartments with an area of 6 square meters are not considered rare here, but rather a common occurrence. You are well aware of the dire situation in Asia, but can you guess that something similar is already happening very close by? The housing shortage problem has caught up with even self-confident Europe, where everyone wants to thrive in urban neighborhoods and head to their country residence for the weekend suburb in which countries the signs of housing shortage have already been observed and how to recognize them? We figured it out ourselves, and now we will tell you.
Symptoms of the problem: how to recognize a housing shortage
Living in a specific place, it is much easier to feel when the smell of fried food appears and when there is a sudden shortage of real estate on the market. However, if we are talking about a foreign country, we will have to look more closely at it. Sometimes the signs may not coincide with the norms due to cultural differences and other characteristics of the country. How to understand if the situation in the country is truly there is a housing shortage.
1️⃣ Pay attention to the age at which children start moving out from their parents. It is generally believed that the later a chick leaves the parental nest, the more it eloquently indicates a simple lack of available housing. The assumption is logical, but it does not always work. For example, in large Italian families, it is customary to live under the same roof until the children reach the age of 30. The nation's color and expressiveness tightly connect generations, so the moment of moving out is considered more sad than long-awaited. In contrast, here, such a late separation from parents looks rather strange and indicates financial instability. Mama's boys, daddy's princesses, and just loving children who do not wish or cannot become independent so quickly live all over Europe. At what age do they dare to enter adult life?
- Sweden - 18.8;
- Netherlands - 23.6;
- France - 23.7;
- Germany - 23.8;
- Austria - 25.4;
- Belgium - 25.7;
- Ireland - 27.3;
- Poland - 28.2;
- Spain - 29.8;
- Italy - 30.1.
2️⃣ Measuring the average living area per person and determining the level overpopulation - this will also help clarify the situation. Ideally, one person should have one room. This will allow not to violate each other's personal boundaries, arrange spaces for relaxation and work in such a way that all cohabitants can cope with their daily concerns and not feel discomfort. How many rooms per person on average in European countries:
- Poland - 1.1;
- Italy - 1.4;
- Austria - 1.6;
- Germany - 1.7;
- France - 1.8;
- Sweden - 1.8;
- Spain - 2;
- Belgium - 2.1;
- Ireland - 2.1;
- Netherlands - 2.1.
3️⃣ The harmonious relationship should not only be between people and rooms, but also between the total population and the country's area. It is worth mentioning that there are nuances here as well. Not every territory is suitable for construction. Protected natural areas and mountain ranges are also parts of the country, but cannot be populated. Therefore, although Switzerland has the lowest number of inhabitants per square kilometer (25 select Swedes), its incredible landscapes do not allow for the setting up of new modern complexes. The Netherlands face the same problem, but for the exact opposite reason - here the highest population density with 500 Dutch people per square kilometer.
4️⃣ When we started talking about new buildings, we involuntarily moved on to another point - the speed of construction of residential buildings. To find out about this, experts analyze the market for the last few years and determine the number of new constructions as a percentage of the total housing stock. Poland remains the leader in this indicator. An analysis of its market for the period from 2020 to 2022 shows that the number of new buildings increased annually by 1.5%. These are quite high rates of construction. It is worth noting that if the rates suddenly decrease, this may indicate not a surge in housing shortage, but a simple decline in demand or purchasing power of the population.
5️⃣ Some analysts believe that housing shortage can be judged by the availability of real estate, that is, by its price. In reality, this is not always the case because prices can be influenced by various factors factors beyond logic - economy, politics, catastrophes, and more. A much more complete picture can be put together by analyzing what percentage of total income goes towards housing and its maintenance real estate comparison in different cities, we also adjust the cost per square meter and the average salary so that you can independently evaluate the opportunities of citizens and the country's potential.
6️⃣ Analysts may not be able to predict the future, but they do so regularly thanks to the availability of data and their persistent analysis. Thus, to determine potential housing shortages or forecast their disappearance, one should look at population dynamics. We suggest taking 2024 as a starting point. If current trends remain stable, by 2042 the population of Sweden and Ireland could increase by 10-15%. In most of the countries we have considered, the trend will be the same, albeit with lower figures. However, in Italy and Poland, the number of residents may decrease by 2% and 6% respectively. This suggests that there is no need to fear a housing shortage here, but the Irish and Swedes should be prepared for crowding.
Each of the parameters mentioned only works in conjunction with others, so Italian 30-year-old children and Dutch 2 rooms per person say nothing yet, on the contrary - the housing shortage in Europe is observed precisely in the Netherlands and Germany.